High-resolution climate data reveals rising global threat of Pierce’s Disease to vineyards

• The study, published in Scientific Reports, uses high-resolution climate data to reveal a far greater global risk of Pierce’s Disease than previously estimated.
• The research is the result of a collaboration between the Institute for Cross-Disciplinary Physics and Complex Systems (IFISC, CSIC-UIB) and Grupo Tragsa.

A new study led by scientists from the Institute for Cross-Disciplinary Physics and Complex Systems (IFISC, CSIC-UIB) and Grupo Tragsa warns that vineyards worldwide face a growing threat from Pierce’s Disease, a deadly grapevine infection caused by the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa.

Published in Scientific Reports, the research shows that using high-resolution climate data dramatically changes current predictions about the potential for the spread of this pathogen, revealing a much greater risk than previously estimated, especially in Europe and South Africa.

“Pierce’s Disease has long been a problem in North America, but our results show that climate change is now creating favorable conditions for its expansion into other major wine-growing regions”, explains Àlex Giménez-Romero, IFISC researcher and first author of the study. “For example, in Europe, after analyzing more than 100,000 vineyards, the proportion of trees at risk jumps from 22% to 41% when high-resolution data is used”.

The study highlights the critical role of microclimates, particularly in river valleys and hilly terrains, where many world-renowned vineyards are located. Regions such as the Douro (Portugal), the Rhône (France), and Napa (California) show a sharp increase in risk once small-scale variations in temperature and precipitation are considered. “These findings are striking because the microclimates that favor exceptional grape quality also create ideal conditions for the pathogen and its insect vectors”, notes Eduardo Moralejo, co-author of the study and researcher at Grupo Tragsa.

According to the results, the pace at which risk is expanding nearly doubles previous estimates when fine-scale climate data are taken into account. This has potentially severe economic implications for the global wine industry, which is already losing more than 100 million dollars each year in California due to this disease. “Our study shows that coarse climate datasets systematically underestimate the danger of emerging plant diseases”, concludes Manuel A. Matías, IFISC researcher and co-author. “High-resolution information is essential, not only for scientific monitoring but also to inform policies and reinforce phytosanitary controls on plant trade”.

The authors warn that southern Europe is particularly vulnerable, Pierce’s Disease has already been detected in Mallorca and Portugal, and call for tighter surveillance, stricter plant movement regulations, and broader use of fine-scale climate data in agricultural risk management.

This work represents an important step in linking climate science with plant disease epidemiology, illustrating how detailed environmental data can radically improve our understanding of threats to global food security.

Giménez-Romero, À., Moralejo, E. & Matías, M.A. High-resolution climate data reveals increased risk of Pierce’s disease for grapevines worldwide. Scientific Reports 15, 31282 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-13994-1

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