Interaction network based early warning indicators for the Atlantic MOC collapse
van der Mheen, M.; Dijkstra, H.A.; Gozolchiani, A.; den Toom, M.; Feng, Q; Kurths, J.; Hernandez-Garcia, E.
Geophysical Research Letters 40, 2714-2719 (2013)
Geophysical Research Letters 40, 2714-2719 (2013)
Early warning indicators of the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning
Circulation (MOC) have up to now mostly been based on temporal correlations in single time series. Here, we propose new indicators based on spatial correlations in the time series of the Atlantic temperature field. To demonstrate the performance of these indicators, we use a meridional depth model of the MOC for which the critical conditions for collapse can be explicitly computed. An interaction network approach is used to monitor changes in spatial correlations in the model temperature time series as
the critical transition is approached. The new early warning indicators are
based on changes in topological properties of the network, in particular changes
in the distribution functions of the degree and the clustering coefficient.
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