Anatomy of digital contact tracing: Role of age, transmission setting, adoption, and case detection

• DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abd8750

The efficacy of digital contact tracing against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic is debated: Smartphone penetration is limited in many countries, with low coverage among the elderly, the most vulnerable to COVID-19. We developed an agent-based model to precise the impact of digital contact tracing and household isolation on COVID-19 transmission. The model, calibrated on French population, integrates demographic, contact and epidemiological information to describe exposure and transmission of COVID-19. We explored realistic levels of case detection, app adoption, population immunity, and transmissibility. Assuming a reproductive ratio R = 2.6 and 50% detection of clinical cases, a ~20% app adoption reduces peak incidence by ~35%. With R = 1.7, >30% app adoption lowers the epidemic to manageable levels. Higher coverage among adults, playing a central role in COVID-19 transmission, yields an indirect benefit for the elderly. These results may inform the inclusion of digital contact tracing within a COVID-19 response plan.

• Full paper

Additional files

• Paper

Related research projects

PACSS

Physics approach to complexity in sociotechnical systems

P.I.: Sandro Meloni, Jose Javier Ramasco, Maxi San Miguel, Raúl Toral

This project, Physics approach to complexity in sociotechnical systems (PACSS), wants to contribute to the understanding of sociotechnical phenomena from the perspective provided by the application of the modern field of complex …

PACSS (CSIC)

Physics approach to complexity in sociotechnical systems

P.I.: Sandro Meloni, Jose Javier Ramasco

This project, Physics approach to complexity in sociotechnical systems (PACSS), wants to contribute to the understanding of sociotechnical phenomena from the perspective provided by the application of the modern field of complex …

MdM-1

Unidad de Excelencia María de Maeztu

P.I.: Ingo Fischer, Claudio Mirasso

-