Eco-evolutionary constraints shape the endemicity and epidemic trajectories of rapidly evolving viruses
Antigenic escape constitutes the main mechanism allowing rapidly evolving viruses to achieve endemicity. Beyond granting immune escape, empirical evidence also suggests that mutations of viruses might increase their inter-host transmissibility. While both mechanisms are well-studied individually, their combined effects on viral endemicity remain to be explored. In this talk I will introduce a minimal eco-evolutionary framework to simulate epidemic outbreaks generated by pathogens evolving both their infectiousness and immune escape. With this model, I will first show that contagions at the population level constrain the effective evolution of the virus, accelerating the increase in infectiousness in the first epidemic wave while favoring antigenic variation in the transition to the endemic phase. I will explain why the interplay between both evolutionary pathways favours the endemicity of viruses with lower baseline infectiousness. Finally, I will show that the networked structure of the antigenic space produces seasonal epidemic trajectories which capture the evolution of rapidly evolving viruses such as the H3N2 virus.
Presential in seminar room, Zoom: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/89027654460?pwd=Wg9TYMPqqP2ipfj2JVvEagmzaTw29c.1
Coffee and cookies will be served 15 minutes before the start of the seminar
Contact details:
Jose Javier Ramasco Contact form