The stochastic skeleton model for the Madden-Julian Oscillation with time-dependent observation-based forcing
Ehstand, Noemie; Donner, Reik V.; Lopez, Cristobal; Barreiro, Marcelo; Hernandez-Garcia, Emilio
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 32, 367-382 (2025)
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 32, 367-382 (2025)
We analyze solutions to the stochastic skeleton model, a minimal nonlinear oscillator model for the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This model has been recognized for its ability to reproduce several large-scale features of the MJO. In previous studies, the model's forcings were predominantly chosen to be mathematically simple and time-independent. Here, we present solutions to the model with time-dependent observation-based forcing functions. Our results show that the model, with these more realistic forcing functions, successfully replicates key characteristics of MJO events, such as their lifetime, extent, and amplitude, whose statistics agree well with observations. However, we find that the seasonality of MJO events and the spatial variations in the MJO properties are not well reproduced. {Having implemented the model in the presence of time-dependent forcings, we can analyze the impact of temporal variability at different time scales. In particular, we study the model's ability} to reflect changes in MJO characteristics under the different phases of ENSO. We find that it does not capture differences in studied characteristics of MJO events in response to differences in conditions during El Niño, La Niña, and neutral ENSO.
Related research projects
MdM-IFISC-2
Maria de Maeztu 2023-2026
I.P.: Ernesto Estrada, Ingo Fischer, Emilio Hernández-García, Rosa Lopez, Claudio Mirasso, Jose Javier Ramasco, Raúl Toral, Roberta Zambrini
After 15 years of its existence, IFISC can point to a proven track record of impactful research. The previous 2018-2022 MdM award has significantly enhanced the institute's capabilities, as demonstrated by an …
LAMARCA
Lagrangian transport of marIne litter and microplastics in coastal waters: structures of transport and connectivity patterns
I.P.: Emilio Hernández-García, Cristóbal López
The aim of this project is to further understand the role of oceanic transport in marine litter (microplastics and meso/macrolitter) dispersion and accumulation areas in the sea surface, along the water column …