Percolation-based precursors of transitions in extended systems

• DOI: 10.1038/srep29552
• ArXiv number: 1601.01978

Abrupt transitions are ubiquitous in the dynamics of complex systems. Finding early indicators of their arrival, precursors, is fundamental in many areas of science such as ecology, electrical engineering, physiology or climate. However, obtaining warnings of an approaching transition well in advance remains an elusive task. Here we show that a functional network, constructed from spatial correlations of the system's time series, experiences a percolation transition way before the actual system reaches a bifurcation point due to the collective phenomena leading to the global change. Concepts
from percolation theory are then used to introduce early warning precursors that anticipate the system's tipping point. We illustrate the generality and versatility of our percolation-based framework with model systems experiencing different types of bifurcations and with Sea Surface Temperature time series associated to El Nino
phenomenon.

• Artículo completo

Related research projects

INTENSE@COSYP

COMPLEX SYSTEMS PHYSICS: INFORMATION, TECHNOLOGY, SOCIETY AND ECOLOGY

I.P.: Maxi San Miguel

-

LASAGNE

MULTI LAYER SPATIOTEMPORAL GENERALIZED NETWORKS

I.P.: Maxi San Miguel

-

LINC

Learning about Interacting Networks in Climate

I.P.: Emilio Hernández-García

Improving our understanding of the Earth's climate phenomena, such as El Niño, has a huge economic and social impact for present and future generations, and can underpin advances in areas as diverse …