Sociomeeting: Complex Systems Approaches to Crime

Complex Systems Approaches to Crime: dynamical geolocalization of mafia-related homicides in Palermo

Understanding organized crime through the lens of complex systems offers new opportunities for quantitative analysis and predictive insight, sometimes revealing patterns in the data that complement and support the findings of Judiciary and Law Enforcement Agencies, which are typically obtained through years of investigations and experiences.

In this discussion, Dario will show a case study based on a unique electronic archive of mafia-related homicides that occurred in Palermo from 1947 to April 2024. By combining geolocalized microdata with high-resolution demographic data at the neighborhood level, Dario and colleagues assess the spatial distribution of homicides against a null hypothesis accounting for population density, detecting areas where the number of murders is disproportionately high or low.

Moreover, by analysing the correlation structure of homicides across neighborhoods at different time aggregation scales, they observe a dynamic pattern reminiscent of the Epps effect in finance.

In addition, Dario will show some of the peculiar challenges of working with crime and historical data, and how they addressed them to extract meaningful insights into Cosa Nostra activity and to develop tools that may support the work of the Prosecutor's Office of Palermo.