COVID-SHINE UNDERSTANDING THE SPATIO-TEMPORAL SOCIAL DETERMINANTS OF HEALTH TO IMPROVE AGENT-BASED MODELLING OF RECURRENT COVID-19 OUTBREAKS

The project has two general aims: (1) To enhance the ability of modelling strategies to predict the dynamics of recurrent outbreaks of COVID-19 by incorporating novel knowledge of the social determinants of health, and (2) To develop an integrated systems framework to help to inform policies, emphasizing the reduction of health inequalities. The specific objectives are: (1) To examine significant social determinants of health unexplored in previous epidemiological studies; (2) To generate new evidence on the role of social determinants of health, both at the individual and small-area level, as well as their possible interactions; (3) To analyse how these one- and multi-level associations determine different evolutions of the cumulative COVID-19 incidence at the small-area level over time; (4) To develop Agent-based models (ABMs) that incorporates the associations found in the previous objectives; (5) To develop an integrated systemic framework, useful to guide decisions and propose sound policy recommendations; and (6) To provide and disseminate timely information with our findings and recommendations.