KCRI-ENCOREDAT ENHANCING CORAL REEF RESTORATION SUCCESS THROUGH DATA-DRIVEN PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE REEF FORMATION

Coral reef restoration efforts are rapidly intensifying amid escalating concerns over ongoing
degradation, attracting significant financial investment. While mathematical models are
invaluable for projecting reef impacts and guiding management, available restoration models
lack ecological realism at intervention-compatible scales. Here, we propose a mathematical
model tailored to the pioneering effort to conserve and restore Shushah Island. Leveraging the
unprecedented availability and diversity of data for the island and neighboring reefs, the project
will correlate existing reef scapes with topography, hydrodynamics, and numerous hydrographic
parameters to model drivers of both degraded and pristine reef communities. Integrating this with
restoration intervention scenarios, the model will simulate future reef formation, providing
crucial guidance for Shushah Island's restoration activities with consideration of future pressures.
The project eventually seeks to develop a ‘portable’ version of the model for direct application
by Shushah Island's restoration teams, pending further support from KCRI. We envision that this
portable model would serve as a pilot project demonstrating the potential of data-driven
modeling to directly enhance restoration outcomes globally, including in other regions of the Red
Sea.