Morphological routes to extinction: A mechanistic assessment of habitat loss

Habitat loss driven by climate and anthropogenic pressures alters patch morphology, with critical consequences for population persistence. Geometric and mechanistic metrics are commonly used to quantify degradation, yet their respective limitations remain poorly understood. Here, we address this gap using a reaction-diffusion framework for population growth and dispersal in a viable patch embedded in a hostile environment. We compare geometric descriptors of patch shape with a mechanistic metric derived from population growth near the extinction threshold. Along degradation trajectories, we find that geometric metrics systematically overestimate persistence, suggesting moderate and decelerating impacts, whereas mechanistic indicators reveal rapid, accelerating approaches to extinction. These results highlight fundamental limitations of geometric approaches and underscore the need for mechanistic assessments when evaluating biodiversity loss in complex landscapes.

Also at bioRxiv: https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.05.24.727415

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