Interesting paradoxes in probability theory and related areas
Even seasoned complex-systems scientists struggle with problems in probability theory. This is because the human brain isn't very well suited to deal with the subtleties of probabilistic thinking. In this talk I will discuss some interesting paradoxes in probability theory and related areas, at a level suitable for masters students and early-stage PhD students. Some of these paradoxes will be familiar to most of you, for example simple instances of the Monty Hall problem. But perhaps you do not know why and how this is relevant in medicine? Do you know how Simpson's paradox may influence what medicine you take or what doctor you visit? Are you familiar with the Tuesday paradox, the prosecutor's fallacy or Condorcet's voting paradox? Do you know how to estimate the probability that the Sun will rise tomorrow? If you are not, come to the talk. I will present the idea and theory behind some of these problems and paradoxes, but also some real-world instances. In particular I will discuss the Sally Clark case, a women convicted in of murdering her two children in 1999 in the UK. This was based on blatantly incorrect probability arguments presented by "expert witnesses" for the prosecution. Another case involves Lucy Letby, a former nurse, convicted in 2023, and currently serving fourteen life sentences for murdering children on a hospital ward in Chester, England. In her case too, the statistical evidence has come under scrutiny, and an appeal process is in progress.
This Talk will be broadcasted in the following zoom link: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/89027654460?pwd=Wg9TYMPqqP2ipfj2JVvEagmzaTw29c.1
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