A compartmental model for vector transmitted diseases: an application to Xylella fastidiosa

In 2016 the presence of the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa was detected in Majorcan almond trees

and was regarded as the causal pathogen agent of the mortality of these trees over the last fifteen

years. Xylella fastidiosa, being endemic of the Americas, is an insect-transmitted bacterium which

is considered one of the major threats to plants worldwide for its large number of hosts, strains

and potential vectors. By 2017 the reported incidence of the bacterium over Majorcan almond

trees was 79.5% ± 2.0, presenting a great danger to one of the historical crops of the Balearic

Islands. then, the aim of this project is to develop a first step on the study of this epidemic by

means of a deterministic compartmental (mean-field) model. In particular, we present a model

for the vector assisted transmission of the pathogen, performing an analytical and computational

analysis. The model incorporates the specific biological and epidemiological considerations of the

bacterium Xylella fastidiosa and its interactions with insects and hosts in Majorca Island. In our

work the vector (insect) population varies with time, mimicking the field observations. One of the

conclusions is that, in general, this temporal variation hinders the theoretical characterization of

epidemic thresholds.

Advisor: Manuel Matias

Jury: Jose J. Ramasco; Damià Gomila; Manuel Matias

Detalls de contacte:

Manuel Matías

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